982
AXNT20 KNHC 291033
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Sep 29 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Joyce is centered near 21.3N 48.1W at 29/0900 UTCor 870 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 8kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximumsustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The 12 ft seasextend 105 nm in the NE quadrant and 75 nm in the NW quadrant withpeak seas near 14 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted northof the center from 21N to 24N between 46W and 49W. Joyce is willcontinue to move northwest with a decrease in forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the north and north- northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. Weakening is forecast, and Joyce is expected to become a depression by early Monday and then a remnant low on Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECASTissued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest JoyceNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred mileswest-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to producedisorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditionsappear conducive for gradual development of this system, and atropical depression will likely form during the early or middlepart of this week while the system moves toward the west and thennorthwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Thissystem has a medium chance of formation in 48 hours and a highchance in 7 days.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 32W from 20Nsouthward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate tostrong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 26W and 35W.Please see the Special Features for more information on thissystem.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 14N77W from 20Nsouthward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate toisolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 21N between 72Wand 83W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to AL90 near 14N31W to 14N53W. Outside of theconvection associated with AL90, scattered moderate convection isnoted from 03N to 16N between 15W and 49W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure extends across the Gulf of Mexico. Scatteredmoderate to isolated strong thunderstorms are noted across the Bayof Campeche and into the central Gulf, S of 24N. A trough extendsoff the coast of Louisiana. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds arelikely occurring near Veracruz with moderate winds continuing offthe Florida Panhandle. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhereacross the basin. Slight seas are noted over the Gulf.
For the forecast, moderate winds across the northeastern Gulf will diminish today. Moderate to fresh near Veracruz will pulse nightly through Mon, potentially increasing to strong by Tue nightthrough midweek. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight seaswill prevail across the basin through midweek.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Tropical Waves section for information on thetropical wave in the central Caribbean.
Outside of the convection described above in the Tropical Wavessection, scattered thunderstorms are noted along the centralVenezuelan coast near the ABC islands. Scattered thunderstorms arealso noted south of the Dominican Republic. Scattered moderateconvection is being ignited by the tropical wave and the easternPacific monsoon trough, extending along 11N from southernNicaragua and Colombia. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds andslight seas prevail across the Caribbean.
For the forecast, a tropical wave in the west-central Caribbean is producing moderate winds and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba and adjacent waters. These winds and convection will continue through Mon morning as the wave continues to move in the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin through midweek.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please read the Special Features section for information onTropical Storm Joyce and AL90.
In the western Atlantic, a line of thunderstorms is noted off theFlorida coast N of 28N between 77W and 79W. Moderate to freshwinds and seas to 6 ft are noted in this area. Otherwise, highpressure dominates the region with gentle to moderate winds andseas to 5 ft are noted.
In the central Atlantic, moderate to fresh winds are noted N of15N and E of 55W with seas 5 to 8 ft, with the higher seasassociated with AL90. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in thenorthern waters N of 29N between 44W and 47W. S of 15N, winds arelight to gentle with seas to 5 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh winds prevail with seas 4 to 7 ft.
For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas off the Florida coast will improve today. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will then prevail through midweek. Northerly swell will bring rough seas to the far northeastern waters, east of 57W Mon into Mon night.
$$AReinhart
